Uses of Commercial Satellite Imagery in FMCT Verification

Negotiations on a fissile material cut-off treaty (FMCT) were agreed to in 1998 at the Conference on Disarmament (CD) in Geneva after several years’ delay caused by debates over its scope and linkage to nuclear disarmament measures. However, the negotiations have yet to get underway, as they have not been reauthorized by the CD in subsequent years. Should the negotiations move forward, it is expected that the proposed treaty would ban the production of plutonium, highly enriched uranium (HEU), and uranium-233 for explosives and perhaps would require that any fissile materials declared excess to military needs be placed under irreversible International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards. Fissile material, in practice plutonium or HEU, is the fundamental ingredient in all nuclear weapons. It is also the most difficult and expensive part to produce. An FMCT would make irreversible the reduction in nuclear weapon material in the United States and Russia. It would cap the size of all potential nuclear arsenals. A universal FMCT would also draw the three de facto nuclear weapon states (India, Pakistan, and Israel) into the nuclear nonproliferation regime. A global, verified ban on the production of fissile materials for nuclear explosives would, therefore, be a key building block in a comprehensive strategy to contain and eliminate nuclear weapons.